The world is heading for meltdown, as the latest IPCC special report shows.
Source: Quest Vol 14 No 4 pages 6-7
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The latest report by the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released on 8 October 2018 says that urgent and unprecedented changes are needed to reach the target of restricting global warming to a maximum of 1.5°C, beyond which, even half a degree will significantly worsen the risk of droughts, floods, extreme heat and poverty for much of the world’s population. This lies at the most ambitious end of the Paris Agreement pledge to keep temperature changes between 1.5°C and 2°C.
WHAT DIFFERENCE WOULD RESTRICTING WARMING TO 1.5°C MAKE?
The latest IPPC report suggests that this difference of just 0.5°C would make a dramatic difference to the global environment:
■ By 2100, global sea-level rise would be 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared with 2°C.
■ Extreme heatwaves will be experienced by 14% of the world’s population at least once every five years at 1.5°C, rising to more than a third of the planet if temperatures rise by 2°C.
■ Arctic sea ice would remain during most summers if warming is kept to 1.5°C, but at a rise of 2°C, ice-free summers are 10 times more likely, leading to greater habitat losses for polar bears, whales and sea birds.
■ If warming is kept to 1.5°C, coral reefs will still decline by 70-90% but if temperatures rise to 2°C virtually all of the world’s coral reefs would be lost.
■ Extreme heatwaves will be experienced by 14% of the world’s population at least once every five years at 1.5°C, rising to more than a third of the planet if temperatures rise by 2°C.
■ Arctic sea ice would remain during most summers if warming is kept to 1.5°C, but at a rise of 2°C, ice-free summers are 10 times more likely, leading to greater habitat losses for polar bears, whales and sea birds.
■ If warming is kept to 1.5°C, coral reefs will still decline by 70-90% but if temperatures rise to 2°C virtually all of the world’s coral reefs would be lost.
The world is currently 1°C warmer than pre-industrial levels. The IPCC report makes it clear that climate change is already happening – evidenced by devastating hurricanes in the USA, record droughts in Cape Town and forest fires in the Arctic. This has led to the IPCC upgrading its risk warning from previous reports, warning that every fractional additional increase in warming will make the impact worse. At the current level of commitments, the world is on course for a disastrous 3°C of warming. According to the IPCC report, limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require ‘rapid and far-reaching’ transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport and cities. Global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide would need to fall by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching ‘net zero’ by around 2050. This means that any remaining emissions would need to be balanced by removing carbon dioxide from the air.
Reference: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C
